Solar thermal roadmap - 500 TWh by 2030

The solar thermal actors supporting this roadmap commit to produce and install the full solar heat capacity projected by the IEA and IRENA for 2050, in less than 10 years. This would replace 500 TWh of fossil fuels in Europe, which is the equivalent of the full amount of fossil gas produced in the European Union annually.

Producing 500 TWh of direct heat in less than 10 years will require the full mobilisation of our sector, as well as the full-hearted support of EU institutions, Member States and the private sector. However, the European Solar Heat Industry is ready to take this challenge and enable a rapid deployment that can be 100% European made.

SOLAR HEAT ADVANTAGES X3

Heat represents 50% of the final energy consumption, while electricity is only 20% and transport is 30%. With all this, the power sector and renewable electricity solutions receive more support and better conditions for deployment, while renewable heating solutions struggle to achieve their real potential because of the lack of awareness and efforts for heat decarbonisation. For example, the photovoltaic industry is expected to add 400 TWh to the electric grid by 2030. Compared with photovoltaic technology, solar heat has:
3 times higher efficiency with collectors reaching an efficiency of 70 – 80%
3 times less space needed for rooftops and on-ground installations
3 times cheaper energy storage, often integrated in the system

annual energy generation
Solar heat systems in Europe
Thermal Storage

HOW TO SUCCEED?

Southern European countries must adopt solar heat best practices from Cyprus which has on average 1 square meter of solar collector installed per capita.

The country in Europe with the second highest share of solar thermal is Austria, showing that this technology is fit for colder climates. Other colder countries such as Germany, show how single houses and apartment buildings should be using solar heat.

All cities with district heating need to look at the examples of Denmark where summer heat is stored in seasonal storage from summer to winter, and cities not yet with district heating should consider it.

For industry, many multinational companies in Europe are now installing solar heat to replace gas, learn from them!

If it is cheaper than gas, why not go for it?

The deployment of solar heat has faced different barriers, leading to energy users not opting for solar thermal even if it would be profitable. If only profitable investments were implemented without delay, the goals of the pledge would easily be fulfilled. For cities and for industries, issues such as permitting, financing, procurement, and local planning must be addressed in order to facilitate and speed up the deployment of solutions such as solar heat, that are, strategic decisions to end the dependence on fossil fuels. 

What will it cost is the wrong question!

Let’s say instead: how much will we make?

Assuming average gas price the past 3 years, 100 Euro/ton CO2, and 2% inflation, the investment of 200 billion Euro will create proceeds of over 500 billion Euro. Low, predictable energy costs will benefit European industry and reduce costs for citizens, taxpayers, and consumers.

How much will the price drop when the market grows?

IRENA has found that the price drop of solar heat due to the learning curve as the installed base increases is substantial. For Solar District Heating in Denmark, the learning rate resulted in a price drop of 18% for each doubling of the installed base. Such an impressive learning rate surpasses those of both photovoltaic and offshore wind. In addition, as solar heat volumes are still modest, prices will decrease year on year as volumes grow.


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